UK weather update

Pattern change now looks likely bringing colder and some unsettled weather for a time but how long will it last?

The weather has been dominated by high pressure in the South of the UK over the last two weeks which has brought very mild SW winds into the UK but this is going to change from the weekend.


A cold front will move towards the UK on the weekend bringing a change to more colder conditions. This feature will introduce a cold airmass with 850hPa temperatures of below -5c and also some precipitation however any details are uncertain at the moment. But what is likely is that there will be a considerable drop in temperature compared to what we have been used to as of late with temperatures struggling to 5/6c in the west and maybe 5-8c in the East and snow is possible but this is only really likely on any higher ground in the north and west. 


850hPA temperatures for Sunday

The length of this cold spell is still currently uncertain however a change to colder, sunnier with wintry showers looks likely from the weekend but temperature look to rise by the middle to end of the next week but this is likely to change.


Regards, 
Matthew

Weather for the week ahead - Monday 27th February - Sunday 4th March 2012

Springlike week again. Very Mild for most of the week, but Rain in some Northern and Western Areas, mainly dry with some sunny spells at times in the South and East. It may turn more unsettled by the weekend but confidence on this is low.

Monday will bring a mainly cloudy day for most of the country. Southern England and East Wales should have a dry day however West coasts will probably see drizzle by the afternoon. Rain will affect Scotland and most of northern England during the afternoon and this should die out as it spreads South and East. Maximum Temperatures of 9-12c. Monday night, drizzle still affecting western coasts. Rain for Northern and Western Scotland but Eastern and Southern parts of Scotland should stay dry. Minimum temperature of 5-9c

For Tuesday, Western coasts of Wales and England and Scotland may see patchy drizzle and mist or fog patches but some bright spells also at times. Everywhere else, any cloud should break late morning leaving Sunny spells and plenty of dry weather. Mild again and even warm where any cloud does break and temperatures could reach 17c but 11 or 12c on western coasts.

For Wednesday, Western coasts of the country will see the cloudiest conditions again, The rest of the UK will be very mild day with a good deal of cloud but also some sunny spells nearly everywhere. Maximum temperatures of 11-15C. 

On Thursday, fronts will move eastwards bringing some rain to western Scotland. Drier further south with high pressure still in place here but there may be some drizzle at times again on west coasts of Wales and northwest England. Eastern and southern areas should be mainly dry with some sunny spells across southern and eastern England. Maximum Temperautures of 10-15C.

Confidence becomes low for beyond Friday but at the moment, Showers will affect Scotland and Northern England but should clear during the day bringing drier weather. Southern parts of England and Scotland will be dry for maybe all of the day. Maximum Temperatures at 9-14c

This is when the confidence really does start to fall for the forecast for the weekend, but more unsettled weather looks more likely. Saturday, England and Wales should be mainly dry with some sunshine through southern and eastern areas again. Rain may creep into the West later Maximum temperatures of 8-13c. Low confidence again for Sunday but a more unsettled day and turning colder with rain for most areas, heaviest in the West but this could easily change. Rain possibly snow on hills with maximum temperatures of 5-9c

The weather in Pembrokeshire last week was pretty awful with drizzle/mist/fog nearly every day of the week and unfortunately this week does not look that promising either compared to the rest of the UK. Patchy light rain and drizzle will be back but there will be some drier brighter interludes also and it will be staying very mild still but not as mild as E Wales and England.

Here are the min and max temperatures and also rainfall for the next 2 weeks for London and the second for Glasgow. However, these are likely to change, especially after the 4/5 day timeframe but a drop in temperature looks likely from this weekend.

Have a good week,

Matthew

Very Mild day for parts of the UK for this time of year with temperatures reaching 19c

Unusual temperatures for this time of year across many parts of Central and Eastern England today as temperatures hit 18.7c.

The record for Feb is 19.4c in 1891. Not all places enjoyed the sunshine however and places where it stayed misty and cloudy all day, temperatures struggled to get above 12c but this is still mild for this time of year with the average only around 8c. These temperatures are in huge contrast to the -18c we saw in the same places around two weeks ago.

This radar picture highlights where the cloud broke and this is where the warmest temperatures occurred. 


For the rest of the week and weekend, mild weather will continue to dominate but not as mild as today.


Tonight, A band of rain will spread southeastwards, reaching northern England by the morning. Cooler conditions will follow, with showers across Scotland. Largely dry to the south, but western parts will continue to see patchy drizzle and hill fog at times. Lows 6-10c but maybe 2c in Northern Scotland.


Tomorrow, rain continuing southwards across parts of southern England and Wales. Brighter but colder to the north, with blustery showers in the far north. Still quite windy today particularly across Scotland and It will remain quite mild across central and southern parts of England but elsewhere it will be a bit cooler. Light patchy rain across Southern England and Wales in the afternoon will clear in the night leaving drier, cooler and clearer conditions, taking longest to reach the South East. Most of Scotland and Northern Ireland will have a dry day with sunny spells although a few scattered, mainly light showers are expected to run into northwest Scotland on the brisk west winds. As the winds drop we may see some fog patches developing along with a slight ground frost in places. High temperatures today of 3 to 6C across Scotland and Northern Ireland, 8C for northern England but 11-14C across southern England and Wales.


For the weekend, Most places will be fine after a chilly start Saturday.  Sunday should be dry and fine aswell with fairly light winds and highs of around 10c/11c. Further spells of rain spreading east Sunday night and Monday, easing as they do so. Breezy and staying fairly mild with highs of 7-11c, coldest in the North.


Pembrokeshire will start off dry tomororw but mainly cloudy but rain and mist will arrive again by the afternoon with highs of 11c . Mainly dry saturday with sunny spells but rain spreading East late Sunday evening and Monday.


So starting to feel like Spring now across many areas and this winter is coming to a close however cold conditions are still possible during March with some quite severe cold spells in March in the past. The drought across the South East and Midlands looks set to continue with little rain expected in next few weeks at the moment.


Regards, 
Matthew

WEATHER WARNING - RAIN (Be aware)

The MetOffice have issued a severe weather warning for NW England for today. Heavy rain will affect this area for most of today and may lead to some localised flooding. Rain should ease later but there remains a risk of localised flooding due to river levels peaking later.

Further information and advice can be found here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/links.html

Weather for the week ahead - Monday 20th to Sunday 26th February

Very mild for the time of year before cooling off a bit for the weekend.


Tuesday onwards, air originating from the tropical Atlantic, feeds in mild winds from the south-west or west. Fresh to strong south-west winds for tuesday and a Mild, breezy and rather cloudy day. Outbreaks of rain continuing in the west, especially over upland areas, but otherwise dry with some bright spells, particularly to the east of any hills. Highs of 10c for most in the south and around 8c for scotland. Temperatures will stay well above freezing overnight . Outbreaks of rain will affect western coasts. A drier night in the midlands and the East and south east. Lows at 4 to 8C. 


Wet and windy on Wednesday, particularly across the north and west. A series of fronts will pass southeastwards bringing periods of rain with them. The rain probably won't reach the south by the afternoon and the rain always lighter in the south east. Highs 8-12c.


Thursday should be mainly cloudy across much of the UK and Ireland. Western coasts will have drizzle at times. Bits of sunshine will be appearing away from western coasts and where these occur it will become very warm for the time of year with tops of 17C in the Midlands and South East, 9C in western Scotland. Similar day on friday however A cold front will move into western Scotland and western Ireland bringing rain here at times. To the east and south conditions should be dry, perhaps with some bright spells at time.Very mild again, 9-10c Scotland, 12-16c in the South.

For the weekend. Rain looks like it will move eastwards through the first part of saturday but this fades through the day as pressure builds to the west with drier conditions here. Pressure still high over the south of the country on Sunday perhaps with a frost sunday morning. Fronts moving into Scotland will give cloud and rain at times. Highs at 7 to 10C. 

This chart shows the warmth caused by a huge warmth sector during Thursday. Very Mild temperatures for February.

Brief Cold spell today and tomorrow but then a very mild week

A band of heavy rain and gusty winds is currently moving SE across the UK and this should clear most parts by late afternoon but maybe not until late evening in the South East. Behind this is much colder air which will bring snow/sleet/hail showers to Scotland, Northern Ireland, North West England and parts of North and West Wales. When the front has passed through, temperatures will plummet from around 8-10c to 3-5c in many parts with a biting North Westerly Wind with a very cold wind chill. So today will bring a wet day for many and windy too and cold in the north from early morning but the cold doesn't reach the South until late afternoon/evening. Once the front clears, wintry showers across Scot, N.I, NW England and N & W Wales but mainly dry and clear elsewhere and a widespread frost tonight. Max Temperatures Today - 4/5c North, 8/9c South but 3-5c once front has passed through. Low Tonight generally 0c to -3c but probably above freezing in any coastal areas. If anyone has a weather station, the temperature drop today will be huge and quite quick aswell. The temperature has dropped 2c in 35 minutes here.


For Pembrokeshire, showers of hail/sleet/snow will affect the county for the early part of tonight and may lead to icy stretches first thing tomorrow. Tomorrow will be sunny but windy and cold with a max temperature of 7c. 

The radar picture below highlights the front moving through with the wintry showers following behind. The other charts below show the huge difference in surface temperature once the front moves through. (Click on the charts to expand them)


                                Saturday 15:00

                                Saturday 21:00

Sunday will then bring a sunny cold winters day to many after an early frost and any wintry showers will die out during the die but staying cold with a strong NW wind with a Real feel of around -5/-6c. Another Frost in central and Eastern areas tonight.

Next week is all change again with very mild and mainly unsettled conditions affecting much of the country. Highs could reach 15c in the south by the end of the week.

Regards, 

Matthew

Weekend brief cold snap

This week so far has been a shock to the system as mild air has returned with temperatures reaching double figures across many parts of the UK today. However, A cold front on Saturday will  introduce cold air from the NW.  This will first bring a band of rain followed by clearer and colder conditions and this could lead to the back edge of the rain turning wintry in places. This Metoffice fax chart below shows the cold front moving through the country on Saturday.

By Saturday evening,  850hPA temperatures across the Northern UK will be in the -8 to -10 region which will result in any precipitation being wintry in nature and at low levels.  Heavy wintry showers will follow behind this cold front and Scotland, Northern England and West and North West Wales will be at the greatest risk of showers. Currently, some sleet and snow showers are likely and some snow accumulations are possible.  However, how much precipitation that is associated behind this cold front is still uncertain as if high pressure builds from the West too quickly, then showers will be limited. 


These GFS charts show where showers are more likely and how they will be wintry on Saturday/Sunday. The first chart is for Saturday at 12:00pm  and the second is for Sunday at 12:00pm

So a return to colder conditions is likely at the weekend but looks short lived with mild conditions returning next week.


Regards, 
Matthew

Weather for the week ahead - Monday 13th To Sunday 19th February

Milder weather this week and plenty of dry weather across all of the UK but for how long?


During this week  high pressure is positioned well south- west of Ireland, and the feed of air, although from the NW, has come from all around the high from the mild Azores region, so that in spite of the wind direction, it will be a fairly mild week but turning colder through the weekend.

Tonight, it will be breezy in most areas with variable cloud. The cloud will be thickest across eastern England, and southern England at the start of the night, where showers are likely. Clear spells may also form and where they do, a local frost is possible.

On Tuesday, any early showers across southeast England soon clearing to leave sunny spells for many places. Cloudy and damp across northwest Scotland. Fairly mild, but breezy. 8c in north and west, 5/6c in the East.

Quite cloudy on Wednesday, with the sunniest conditions in the south and east. Rain will spread southwards Thursday into Friday, with blustery showers following into Scotland. Windy throughout but staying mild with max temps of 7-9c throughout. Frosts are unlikely but local frosts can not be ruled out under any clear skies in the East with min temps of 2c here but more generally 4-6c.

The weekend is alot more uncertain, however it on Saturday to be Colder and windy across the north today with snow showers across Scotland, northern England and Wales. Rain clears the south east on saturday morning then dry and sunnier. A widespread frost develops tonight. Expect highs of 3 to 8c. Sunday will be a colder, windy day with snow showers across around western and eastern coasts. Dry inland with long sunny spells. highs of 2 to 7C. 

After another snow event for England, it looks like back to milder conditions from Sunday

Heavy snow fell in parts of England last night and the precipitation band was further East than forecast giving another snow event for the SE and London. Pembrokeshire stayed as rain as we were under milder 850hPA temperatures than the rest of Wales and England although it stayed cold all night with a maximum temperature of 3c. 

Tonight any rain should clear the South West of Wales and England to leave a mainly cloudy night although clear skies will develop widely across England allowing temperatures to plummet here with a severe frost and widespread ice with temperatures widely below freezing with -2c to -5c in cities and -5 to -10c in rural areas. Cloudier and milder in Scotland and Northern Ireland with a min of 1c. By the morning clear skies should of reached most of Wales and maybe Pembrokeshire and temperatures may well be below freezing in most of Wales, maybe closer to freezing in the west depending on when skies clear. This may aswell lead to widespread ice tomorrow morning. 

Alot of cloud again across northern areas and Ireland, with occasional rain or drizzle, especially across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Tomorrow will be mainly sunny across England and Wales but very cold again with max temp of 3/4c but even colder in the East with light winds everywhere.

A cold night to come Saturday night with a widespread frost again with temperatures -2c to -4c widely, maybe abit more cloud in the East at times. Not so cold in Scotland and Northern Ireland with overcast conditions here and a min temp of 2c.Sunday then sees a return to slightly milder weather in Wales and the South West of England, staying slightly colder in Eastern England but not as cold as recently with highs of 7c in the West, 4/5c in the East.

Milder weather looks to dominate most of next week but a solid trend is now appearing in the models that another burst of cold from around the 19th/20th February from the North this time. A long way off yet though but will be doing updates about this in the Long Range Discuission.

Snow Update for Parts of the UK

Freezing rain has fallen widely across N England this morning leading to a coating of ice in places but the problem with freezing rain should ease through the afternoon as milder air moves into N England. Further south any rain will turn to sleet and snow in some places this evening and overnight and this should linger in the South during tomorrows rush hour.
However, I can not believe how poorly the precipitation distribution has been handled by the models and the Metoffice as the precipitation is alot further East than forecast.


The Metoffice have issued a yellow warning for snow for E Wales, parts of SW England and the Midlands but i do think the SE and East Anglia should be under this warning as snow is currently falling their alot more than the other places.


You can see the warning below. 

Yellow Warning of Snow09 Feb 2012, 16:00

Issued at - 09 Feb 2012, 11:54
Valid from - 09 Feb 2012, 16:00
Valid to - 10 Feb 2012, 12:00

An area of snow is expected to develop over parts of east and northeast England later on Thursday. This evening and tonight snow will then extend steadily southwestwards into central and some southwestern parts of England, as well as the east of Wales. Whilst there is uncertainty regarding where the heaviest and most persistent snow will fall, accumulations of  1 to 5 cm are likely with a risk of up to about 10 cm in the worst affected regions. These larger totals are more likely across the Midlands and perhaps southeast Wales. Later in the night the snow is expected to die out across northern, eastern and much of central England to be followed by widespread ice on untreated surfaces. The public should be aware that, as a result, there could be some disruption to travel. This warning will be kept under review and may be updated in the light of new information.

Significant Snow possible for parts of Wales and England Tomorrow Night And Friday, Also freezing rain for parts of N.England and Scotland

Tonight, a weather front bringing rain continues southeast, into northern England after midnight,  perhaps falling as sleet or snow on higher ground but the main problem is likely to be freezing rain which may cause some treacherous conditions on roads. In the south, there will be another harsh frost with temperatures widely -2c to -5c and maybe even -10c in rural areas. Tomorrow, uncertainty grows, but at the moment what looks most likely is that the front will move further south and east and will increasingly turn to snow through tomorrow night and into Friday. Inland areas in the NW, the Midlands, E Wales and central and parts of southeast England are most at risk. Accumulations of 5-10cm are expected in any affected area. The front then looks to pull back West. 

Latest GFS model showing the snow. Dashed lines are the snow.

Latest MetOffice fax showing the front being pulled back westwards.

Unfortunately, Pembrokeshire looks likely to miss the snow again and rain will move in tomorrow night here and Friday looks a dreary day with light rain for much of the day but still feeling cold. High of around 4/5c.

Models are still hinting at the possibility of a Greenland High next week but a lot of uncertainty about this. For cold weather fans, this would be great and would also increase the snow risk for Wales.

Latest UKMO model showing the Greenland High and northerly winds through the UK on the 14th.

WEATHER WARNING - ICE

Temperatures dropped below freezing widely in Pembrokeshire and most of the UK last night leading to widespread Icy patches especially on untreated roads. The public is advised to take extra care, further information and advice can be found here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/links.html. Ice should melt through the day, a sunny day to come but cold with max temperatures of 4c, frost again tonight.

Weather for Week ahead - 6th to 12th Feb

Weather for the week ahead - Monday 6th to Sunday 12th - Remaining Cold away from Northern Ireland and Scotland but dry with severe overnight frosts.


Wales:
During the early part of this coming week, most of Wales will be in slightly milder air as we are within a slack area between high and low pressures but turning colder from Tuesday as high pressure builds and winds from the East return.
Bits of rain and drizzle around today for much of the country and some extensive mist and hill fog. Highs between 4c and 8c, milder in the west. On Tuesday, Low cloud and any freezing fog should clear to leave sunny intervals, but it could become cloudier in the East later. Colder with a Maximum temperature 5 °C with an Easterly Breeze, this followed by a medium to severe frost overnight with lows generally between -1c and -5c but locally colder. Dry and colder on 
Wednesday and mainly sunny with Max temps between 0c and 3c, after an overnight frost. More cloud on Thursday and especially Friday which may produce some patchy light rain or sleet in places, mainly north. Remaining cold though with max temps generally between 0c and 4c. and frosts likely in places where skies clear. Confidence for the weekend is low however it looks mainly dry but cloudy and maybe slightly milder with max temperatures between 1c and 6c.

UK:


Today, Murky conditions will dominate but some clear spells further north however Wintry showers will affect East Anglia and southeast England. Cold away from the west, with a severe frost, especially over snowcover. Temp Max - 0-3c East,  4-8c West. Tuesday will see any wintry showers ease across southeast England, with brighter conditions across England and Wales. Plenty of sunshine for much of Scotland. Milder and cloudier in Northern Ireland. For the rest of the week, Rain across NI and parts of Scotland will progress southeastwards, with the risk of some snow for Scotland and northern England. Otherwise, Remaining very cold but largely dry elsewhere with sunny spells and severe overnight frosts at times. Max Temps around 0-3c, Low temps -1 to -8c, perhaps milder in Northern Ireland


Europe:


Very Cold weather continues throughout the coming week with snow in places. Temperature may recover slightly by weekend however another Siberian outbreak looks on the cards, especially East Europe.